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Guideline for Arctic Marine Risk Assessment

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Guideline for Arctic Marine Risk Assessment

Stage 3 - Risk Analysis

The risk analysis follows a sequential approach in estimating the risk:

  1. Estimating the likelihood of potential accidental events
  2. Estimating the potential severity of the consequences in case of event occurrence
  3. Combining likelihood and consequence in a risk metric

In the following, the Guideline distinguishes between two categories of risk analysis. These are:

A) Ship traffic risk
B) Environmental risk assessment

The two categories of risk analysis are often conducted in sequence; first A to estimate the likelihood of marine accidents and loss potential (e.g. oil spill amount) and then B to assess the potential impact to the environment (e.g. sensitive and vulnerable areas, and wildlife).

Ship traffic risk

Calculate the likelihood of event occurrence and potential consequences
Best practice quantitative marine risk calculation tools
Best practice on including ARIFs in marine risk calculation
Polar Operational Limitations Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS)

Environmental risk and sensitivity

Best practise for environmental risk assessment
Spreading and fate of oil spill
Vulnerability assessment
Environmental consequence and risk

Arctic Risk Influencing Factors

Ice

Ice

Ice may affect hull structure, stability characteristics, machinery systems, navigation, the outdoor working environment, maintenance and emergency, preparedness tasks and malfunction of safety equipment and systems.

Topside icing

Topside icing

Topside icing, with potential reduction of stability and equipment functionality.

Low temperature

Low temperature

Low temperature may affect the working environment and human performance, maintenance and emergency preparedness tasks, material properties and equipment efficiency, survival time and eperformance of safaety equipment and systems.

Extended periods of darkness or daylight

Extended periods of darkness or daylight

Extended periods of darkness or daylight as it may affect navigation and human performance.

High latitude

High latitude

High latitude, as it affects navigation systems, communication systems and the quality of ice imagery information.

Remoteness

Remoteness

Remoteness and possible lack of accurate and complete hydrographic data and information, reduced availability of navigational aids and seamarks with increased potential for groundings compounded by remoteness, limited , readily deployable SAR facilities, delays in emergency response and limited, communications capability, with the potential to affect incident response.

Lack of crew experience

Lack of crew experience

Potential lack of ship crew experience in polar operations, with potential for human error

Lack of emergency equipment

Lack of emergency equipment

Potential lack of suitable emergency response equipment, with the potential for limiting the effectiveness of mitigation measures.

Severe weather conditions

Severe weather conditions

Rapidly changing and severe weather conditions, with the potential for escalation of incidents.

The environment

The environment

The environment with respect to sensitivity to harmful substances and other environmental impacts and its need for longer restoration.